Cattle prices are drifting south but agents and analysts believe the pressure is courtesy of the weather and heavy supply as opposed to tariff talk and global trade disruptions.
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Their assessments are backed by more processor announcements of capacity growth this year.
The National Young Cattle Indicator has dropped 13 cents a kilogram live weight in the past month, while processor cows are back 28c/kg carcase weight. Feeders steers have held their ground the most, dropping only 5c/kg live weight.
Most indicators, however, remain well in the green on the year-ago price.
MLA analyst Emily Tan said producers have tried offloading more cattle given the continued dry outlook, pushing yarding sizes up.
Most agents are tipping more downward pressure in the short-term, pointing to reasonably full feedlots and little need for processors to chase supply.
StoneX's Ripley Atkinson said there was also anecdotal evidence of larger stations in Queensland moving cattle earlier than expected at lighter weights due to concerns about pricing.
"Markets aren't yet pricing in the implications of tariffs on livestock cash prices," Mr Atkinson said.
"It's just the supply and demand dynamic dictating terms at present but this could change quickly."
However, exactly what the effect might be on cattle prices here of any Trump tariff action is impossible to pinpoint.
Mr Atkinson said it would depend on how the rate was distributed across the supply chain.
"Discussions have indicated the local US market intends to push it back down the supply chain to shield consumers, which in effect means there'll be pressure on livestock prices," he said.
Some processor sources have hinted to ACMAgri that grids could be pulled back by as much as 10 per cent overnight if the 25pc tariff announcement eventuates.
However, analysts suggest that will be short-lived as the need to secure supply dominates.
Mecardo's Angus Brown points out both Australian beef export volumes to the US and 90 chemical lean prices are running at record levels.
US tariffs would likely bolster US cattle prices, which were already close to record levels, he said.
"With inelastic demand for ground beef in the US, and alternative markets available for Australian exports, it's hard to see tariffs on beef significantly impacting saleyard cattle prices here," he said.
Global AgriTrends' Simon Quilty felt the uncertainty over the US tariffs would only play a short-term role in cattle prices here.
"Once the dust settles, I'm still of the opinion we will see prices rise come mid-year," he said.
"The fundamentals remain the same. Beef supply is tight globally."
Shan Goodwin
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
Shan Goodwin steers ACM’s national coverage of the beef industry. Shan has worked as a journalist for 30 years, the majority of that with agricultural publications. She spent many years as The Land’s North Coast reporter and has visited beef properties and stations throughout the country and overseas. She treats all breeds equally. Contact 0427686187. E: s.goodwin@austcommunitymedia.com.au
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