The case for the Soan Dam

It is important to share several important geographical facts about Pakistan and its need for water storage. The first is climate change. Due to rising temperatures, we will have floods followed by water shortages once most of the glaciers have melted.

Second, the population of Pakistan has crossed 250 million. By 2060 the population is expected to grow to 367 million. Currently, 40 per cent of Pakistanis live below the poverty line. Third, Pakistan is ranked 14th among the 17 ‘extremely high-water risk’ countries of the world. With 2.8 per cent of the global population, Pakistan accounts for 0.5 per cent of global water renewable water resources.

Fourth, water stored in Pakistan’s dams is only for 30 days, compared to the US’s 900 days and India’s 170 days. Fifth, about 35.6 million acre-feet of water ($21 billion worth) flows into the Arabian Sea unused, which is one-fourth of the total water fed in by glacier melt and rain. This water flows during the rainy/flood season for about three months.

Sixth, due to a lack of river water during the remaining 9 months, seawater intrusion into the Indus River Delta damages fertile agricultural land. Seventh, unlike the Punjab, underground water in most of Sindh and Balochistan is unfit to drink or to use for irrigation.

The Soan Dam site at Dhok Pathan is located in northern Punjab. It has been proposed as a solution to address several water management challenges in the country. Please note that a dam survey team from the World Bank had proposed the building of this dam in 1955. The Soan Dam’s planned water supply would not only come from the Soan River itself but also from a 100-kilometre-long canal that draws water upstream of the Tarbela Dam.

The dam would help address water shortages in this region, particularly during dry spells. By capturing and storing excess water during the monsoon season, the dam would provide a reliable water supply during the dry season, which is crucial for sustaining agricultural productivity in an area that relies heavily on irrigation. It would have a storage capacity of 38 to 48 MAF (million acre-feet) of water, eight times the storage capacity of the Tarbela Dam or the Basha Dam. It would also produce over 5,000MW of electricity.

The Soan Dam could play an important role in flood control by capturing excess water during periods of heavy rainfall and releasing it gradually to avoid downstream flooding. In the case of the 2022 floods, where one-third of the country was underwater and damages of $16 billion were caused, water could be held back in Soan Dam mitigating the floods in Punjab and Sindh.

By improving water access, the Soan Dam could also support the expansion of irrigation networks, which in turn would promote food security, reduce poverty, and improve rural livelihoods. Given that agriculture is a key sector in Pakistan’s economy, enhancingirrigation infrastructure can contribute to economic stability in rural areas. Building of the dam would contribute $90 billion to the economy.

Currently, large dams are being constructed on the Indus River at Dasu and Basha, with live storage capacities of 1.14 MAF and 6.4 MAF, respectively, and on the Swat River in Mohmand Agency, with a live storage capacity of 0.67 MAF. Once completed, these dams will increase water storage capacity from 30 to 55 days. However, these dams alone cannot match the storage capacity that the proposed Soan Dam would provide. Also, they would partially make up for water storage capacity lost at Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma Barrage due to silting.

If constructed, the Soan Dam would help reduce flooding in the Nowshera Valley area by diverting floodwaters from the Indus River to the Soan Dam, so that there is no backflow at Attock for the Kabul River. In addition, water from the Indus-Soan River canal could be used to supply water to the water-starved Rawalpindi-Islamabad area, especially the multiple housing societies that are being developed.

The intrusion of seawater into the Indus River Delta is a serious environmental issue, exacerbated by the reduction in freshwater flow from the Indus River due to upstream dams and water diversions. As less freshwater reaches the delta, seawater moves further upstream, leading to the salinisation of agricultural lands, loss of biodiversity and disruption of the livelihoods of local communities.

As mentioned above, the stored water in Soan Dam would be released to keep seawater out of the Indus River Delta throughout the year. The volume of water required is from 10 to 15 million acre-feet, which could only be met by Soan Dam.

While the dam could help mitigate some of the impacts of climate change and water shortages, it could also pose challenges, such as managing water distribution, protecting ecosystems, and ensuring that the project’s benefits are equitably shared. The government of Pakistan should seriously consider constructing the Soan Dam, given the worsening water shortage and rapidly growing population. The cost of building the dam would be lower than that of the Diamer-Basha Dam.

A historical comparison highlights its potential: In 1994, the per capita incomes of Pakistan ($440) and China ($490) were similar. In the same year, China began constructing the Three Gorges Dam. This project, along with many other dams, has significantly benefited the Chinese economy, particularly by ensuring competitive goods through inexpensive hydropower. Why can’t we do the same?

The write is a freelance contributor. He can be reached at:

sheledroos@gmail.com