Whiskey, butter, and billions at stake: Why Ireland should worry about Trump’s tariff move

With billions on the line and key exports at risk, Ireland must now navigate Trump’s unpredictable trade war
Whiskey, butter, and billions at stake: Why Ireland should worry about Trump’s tariff move

President Donald Trump holds a signed executive order during an event to announce new tariffs in the Rose Garden of the White House on Wednesday. Picture: AP/Evan Vuccii

As US president Donald Trump took to the podium in the Rose Garden on Wednesday night, Irish news editors breathed a sigh of relief.

While Mr Trump has been open in his hostility towards the media, his cognisance of Irish print deadlines was no doubt appreciated, even if the content of what he said was not. Indeed, while Mr Trump's knack for showmanship makes him something of a media dream, scratching beneath the often bizarre surface reveals troubling truths.

In a 45-minute rambling, unfocused, scattergun gun announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, he gave the media on both sides of the Atlantic and across the world plenty of fodder. 

A 10% minimum tariff across the board has the potential to upend the established global economy and reach deep into the security and defence pillars that have contributed to the relative peace and prosperity of the last 75 years.

Donald Trump with the cardboard cutout of a rate card which showed which countries would be hit with which tariffs. Picture: AP/Mark Schiefelbein
Donald Trump with the cardboard cutout of a rate card which showed which countries would be hit with which tariffs. Picture: AP/Mark Schiefelbein

In this new American golden age, Mr Trump was clear: nobody is safe. While he spoke of having some form of respect for countries who had "stolen" American industries he promised to levy tariffs on friend and foe alike.

Indeed, this includes a group of barren, uninhabited volcanic islands near Antarctica, home only to glaciers and penguins. The residents of Heard Island and McDonald Islands are no doubt all aflutter after hearing that their home — accessible only by a 10-day boat from Perth, Australia — is included. 

And a 10% levy has also been imposed on the British Indian Ocean territory home only to US and UK service members at the Diego Garcia US Air Force base.

In truth, the whole endeavour was very, very Trump. It included rambling and name-calling, it included weird memeified moments including a large cardboard cutout of a rate card which showed which countries would be hit with which tariffs, the giveaway of red Maga hats and the sight of the president's speech being interrupted by a collaborator, a union member who makes cars in Michigan, introduced as Brian.

And, like some of what Mr Trump raises, there was a kernel of truth to what he spoke of. When Mr Trump railed against adversaries like China and traditional allies like Canada and Europe on the global trade practices, which he said have been used to steal America's wealth and enrich those countries, there is an understandable point there. America has long given more favourable terms to its trading partners than it gets in return. 

But as has been pointed out by numerous trade experts, Mr Trump's claims go both ways. For example, while he has repeatedly spoken about the charge on US cars coming into the EU, the US also applies tariffs on light trucks going the opposite direction. 

In Canada's case, Mr Trump has likened it to having China's trade barriers to US goods when it is, in fact, extremely open to US goods bar a few sectors. 

When Mr Trump railed at the loss of manufacturing from the US, he never once reckoned with the companies who had done so in search of cheaper labour.

With regards to Wednesday's event, there were two major questions around Mr Trump's presentation. The first is the word reciprocal. While the US president took the time to define the word — "that means they do it to us, we do it to them" — his administration's grasp of reciprocity appears to be fuzzy. 

According to European Commission figures for 2023, the US collected about €7bn of tariffs on EU exports, and the EU collected about €3bn on US exports. This also is not helped by the fact the US tariffs, while supposedly reciprocal, are also "discounted".

While Ireland's pharma industry has been left off the list of items to be tariffed 'in the immediate future', there are real and pressing concerns here today. Picture: AP /Mark Schiefelbein
While Ireland's pharma industry has been left off the list of items to be tariffed 'in the immediate future', there are real and pressing concerns here today. Picture: AP /Mark Schiefelbein

The discount appears to have been worked out based on halving the figures outlined on the comically large cardboard table Mr Trump brandished for a good chunk of Wednesday's event. There, it was claimed the EU levies a 39% tariff on imports from the US. There is no argument that the EU imposes tariffs on things like dairy, the average tariff on US goods is about 3%.

The Trump administration, as is its wont, has not shown its workings. But it appears the 39% figure was used by working out the trade deficit and dividing it by the value of exports. Mr Trump repeatedly mentioned non-tariff barriers such as currency manipulation, Vat and other measures, which he said had in effect shut off US exports to certain markets.

But the chart itself seemed like a prime case of making data suit your established narrative, of speaking something into existence. It also offers an insight into Mr Trump's thinking — a trade deficit is being ripped off and there's nothing worse.

High stakes for Ireland

But all of this has to be reckoned with in Ireland.

While Ireland's pharma industry has been left off the list of items to be tariffed "in the immediate future", there are real and pressing concerns here today. For those Irish companies who make dairy products or whiskey, the price of their goods on US supermarket shelves is expected to rise sharply in light of the tariff announcement. 

The Irish Farmers Association has warned the difference between the 20% tariff being imposed on the EU and the 10% being levied on the UK will mean exporters here are less competitive in the US market. 

Kerrygold butter, for example, is the second best-selling butter brand in the US, but will now be 20% more expensive overnight. The Irish Whiskey Association, meanwhile, has said the effects will be immediate on its products in the US as well as other Irish spirits.

With the EU set to decide on a response in the coming days, many Irish businesses will be watching with bated breath. We know the stakes in Ireland at this point — billions at risk, potential delays of tax cuts and welfare increases, 80,000 jobs on the line.

Throughout his speech, Mr Trump said that he was giving a discount because he is "so kind". For large portions of the population, waking up to an upended global order, it certainly doesn't feel that way.

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