Noble: Why the Dragon isn’t dead yet—plus T&T’s education crisis

I do not believe that the Dragon Field initiative is dead. The rumours of its end are greatly exaggerated.

For context, I advance this quotation from the influential US Politico newsletter. It was written about the tariff situation of last week, but it can easily fit our situation.

“He likes the shock and awe and aims to capitalise on it. Each country needs to panic and call … [Donald] Trump wants to hear you grovel and say you’ll cut a deal.

“Some [nations] will cut a deal before; some just won’t get it and will get pounded. And then we’ll see how fast they start dealing.”

However, it may die should the United National Congress (UNC) win office in the upcoming elections. President Nicolas Maduro may not play ball with a group that has insulted him at every turn possible.

Interestingly, the UNC press conference held after the announcement of the licence cancellation demonstrated a new position.

Mr David Lee, the shadow minister of energy, said: “It is a sad day. It is really a sad day. We are literally saddened. This is nothing to gloat over because this impacts every citizen of TT.”

Nonetheless, the trolls continued to castigate Prime Minister Stuart Young about the ‘failed’ deal.

The second reason this is not a dead deal is the involvement of the oil majors.

We, as Trinidadians, like to pretend that our government is the driver of this deal. We have earned our place at the table, but the heavy lifters are Shell and BP.

Both companies are experienced in dealing with challenging governmental approvals. They are also patient negotiators, as typical oil and gas deals take a long time to mature.

BP has also struck what it describes as “its second major start-up of 2025” (the Raven field in Egypt is the first). William Lin, BP’s executive vice president (EVP) Gas and Low Carbon Energy, said:

“Our focus is on consistent execution and safe delivery of major projects like Cypre. The second of 10 major projects across our global portfolio that we expect to start up by 2027, Cypre is also the first of a series of projects we will be bringing online in Trinidad to deliver gas to the nation and add value for bp.”

The third reason is startling. Reuters reports:

“Many buyers of Venezuelan oil have resumed loading crude onto tankers after a week-long hiatus at the country’s ports after the US applied tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on importers of the OPEC nation’s oil, according to shipping data and documents.”

The need for Venezuelan oil is driven partly by the configuration of the refineries.

This development is worth watching as a prolonged dispute between the world’s two biggest economies—China and the US—will likely reduce global trade volumes and disrupt trading routes, weighing on global economic growth and reducing oil demand.

But the future is tricky. Here is what Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, which provides macroeconomic research to major financial institutions, said in the light of the tariffs:

“[…] There’s been enough damage done to the US economy, to the global economy, to investor confidence, consumer confidence, that we’re probably going to see a recession regardless of what happens.”

Gordon Brown, the former UK prime minister (2007 to 2010), describes the situation ahead:

“As China and the US decouple, disruptive trade wars are intensifying and threaten to descend into currency wars; import, export, investment and technology bans, and financial fire sales that will destroy millions of jobs worldwide.”

Trinidad and Tobago is not exempt from the pain that lies ahead. What are the significant problems we must solve? Which leadership team can help us navigate the shoals ahead? What adjustments do we, as the people, have to make?

In June 2022, Wendell Mottley warned: “[…] For many decades, T&T’s highly productive energy sector funded disproportionately high standards of living in its non-energy sectors, including the public service.

“However, production in the energy sector has been in decline since 2010, masked temporarily by extraordinary recent increases in energy prices.

“[…] In such difficult circumstances, governments usually ‘fudge’ a settlement among claimants, dictated in part by perceived political strength and the vociferousness of their claims. The un-sustainability of these settlements is brutally exposed over time…”

That article is worth re-reading. Mottley says we cannot afford to live as before and asks why we give some more than others. Former Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley is not on moral high ground with his acceptance of the Salary Review Commission’s recommendations.

Before the Privy Council, Minister Colm Imbert amplified inter alia: “In fact, oil production in this country is half of what it was 15 years ago, and gas production is 35 per cent less than 10 years ago.

“Such production is not expected to improve until 2027, when gas from Venezuela is expected to become available to the country… the government will soon be faced with very difficult choices in maintaining the current levels of subsidies, grants, free services and social programmes.

“Notably, as the government grapples with significantly reduced revenues, there are demands for more and more government expenditure on infrastructure and social programmes.”

In this reality, the PSA electoral support for the UNC in exchange for a 10 percent wage increase is a stark transactional bargain. In 2015, a similar transaction added over $1 billion to the fiscal account.

Finance Minister Vishnu Dhanpaul calculates the backpay liability at between $6 and $7 billion.

Which leadership team will face the reality? What ought we to do? When the Gordon Brown-scenario comes into being, what shall we do then? Can we expect to raise wages each time? What other societal steps must be taken to improve our self-sufficiency?

What are our plans for education in the light of the World Bank’s assessment?

In a recent webinar, the senior Bank officials laid bare the systemic inadequacies plaguing Caribbean schools, highlighting outdated teaching practices, ill-equipped infrastructure, and widening educational inequities.

They stressed the need for significant financial investment and enhanced teacher support to reverse the region’s educational decline.

Which party has acknowledged this situation? Prime Minister Young’s vision is underdeveloped. The opposition leader’s version is to revive the laptop program.

But the blunt conclusion was: “We are confronting a crisis that is jeopardising the future of the Caribbean, a crisis in education. This may sound dramatic, but the impact on education is so critical, and the systems are failing.

“Indeed, this constitutes a crisis. We must ask ourselves and answer questions about how we can strengthen foundational skills in literacy, numeracy, and critical thinking to improve learning outcomes.” (My emphasis).

Dr Tim Gopeesingh, during his term as education minister, demonstrated staggering disdain for our young children by doing nothing about the 2013 study results on 3,000 early childhood and primary school children.

That study found that 25 per cent of the children required little external assistance to achieve educational success, 25 per cent could achieve success with some degree of external neurodevelopment assistance, and the other 50 per cent needed significantly more help.

Victoria Levin, senior economist in the World Bank’s education global practice, took a shot at our SEA: “The elite secondary schools maintain their privileged status through highly selective admissions processes based on standardised entrance exams.

“This serves as a sorting mechanism with lifelong consequences for students. Meanwhile, the rest of the secondary school system fails to deliver the necessary competencies, perpetuating social inequality.”

The World Bank also highlighted a growing disconnect between education and labour market requirements.

World Bank’s country director for the Caribbean, Lilia Burunciuc, noted that Caribbean employers consistently report skills shortages, indicating that the current education system fails to prepare students for the workforce.

Our children who lack foundational learning are shunted into secondary schools, where ill-discipline is chronic. How does a return to a $ 58-million-plus-a-year programme help our disadvantaged children to progress?

Should that money not be used to hire teachers who can help the lower-performing students? For low-performing children prone to distraction, digital devices can impede education as these children indulge in the illusion that they can multitask at no cost to their learning.

Regarding the health situation, reading Dr Joel Teelucksingh’s Healthy Beginnings, Hollow Promises column should be mandatory.

How does either party hope to solve the crime situation? The real issue lies in the significant seizures of illegal cargo and guns that pass through our borders. Do we believe that the solutions offered by the parties can help us?

The Newsday article cited a UN report dated 2 September 2024. It said: “Authorities arrested Darwin ‘El Culón’ García Gibori, the leader of the Evander gang, along with seven other Venezuelans and a Trinidadian fisherman, in Port (sic) Fortin, in southern Trinidad.

“The gang is involved in both extortion of boats carrying Venezuelan migrants as well as ferrying drugs and arms.”

García Gibori was later jailed for five years by a Point Fortin magistrate after pleading guilty to gun charges. Evander, the Deltano Liberation Front, has embedded members in TT gangs, the report said, citing police and immigration sources.

“There are also concerns that some former gang members provide services to various gangs, including Muslim [gangs] in Port of Spain, as well as gangs in Port Fortin and Chaguanas.”

It added, “ The report said the rise in violence and development of gang culture was owing to ‘intergenerational impoverishment that causes social vulnerability.’

“Half of gang members are aged 19–25, and half are over 25, the report said. A drop in the age of the gang members has led to more violence between gangs.”

What does it take to solve this situation? If the economic situation does spiral out of control, how do we treat with the “intergenerational impoverishment that causes social vulnerability”? Can a cop do that?

On a related note, the UNC has usually taken a hard line against Maduro and Venezuelan migrants. How does the OWTU reconcile its support for Venezuela with its electoral alliance with the UNC?

Could a rupturing of trust between the then-Rowley-led administration and the OWTU over the refinery sale have possibly pushed them into this arrangement?

The circumstances are murky and not well reported. What’s in the future?

So here we are. Shadow foresaw our plight in his calypso, Same Khaki Pants:

“Politicians just like to promise, like promising is their business

And ah feeling something, election coming.

Ah hope dey change for the new millennium and keep dey promises with the poor man

And ah feeling something, election coming.

You gotta select a government who you believe is for betterment

Remember yuh vote really means a lot; doh mind how yuh fed-up with ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’.

Whosoever win de election, you know who would be happy

Whosoever win de election, you know money does follow money

But whosoever win de election, please give de poor man ah chance

Don’t leave him there in that distance, in that same khaki pants.”

Think before you vote!